***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.3 58.1 57.2 -0.1 0.6 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.2 55.8 54.2 0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 3.6 4.3 2.1 0.7 62.3 61.1 1.6 3.4 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 -2.9 -1.4 -0.1 0.9 61.5 62.0 -4.5 -3.1 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.2 65.1 66.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -0.3 0.0 -1.6 1.2 62.6 62.8 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.3 56.4 56.2 0.2 0.9 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -5.0 -4.3 -1.7 0.8 57.5 58.2 -7.4 -5.2 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 1.3 2.1 1.2 1.0 65.7 65.4 -0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 1.2 1.8 -0.7 0.8 58.6 60.0 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.7 69.7 70.5 -0.5 0.7 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.9 59.4 60.0 -1.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 1.8 1.7 -0.2 1.5 69.4 67.7 0.3 0.9 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.7 61.4 60.8 1.0 1.6 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.4 71.3 70.1 0.5 1.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 1.5 2.2 0.0 1.4 66.1 65.9 0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 53.7 53.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 0.9 60.8 61.1 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.3 57.7 55.8 0.2 1.1 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 -3.1 -3.3 -3.9 0.5 51.5 52.9 -4.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 1.2 1.9 2.0 0.7 62.8 61.0 -0.3 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 56.3 54.8 -0.5 1.0 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 1.0 1.5 1.8 0.6 62.9 60.4 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 1.3 2.0 1.0 1.1 65.2 64.5 -0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.6 60.0 60.4 0.1 0.9 1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 1.0 1.1 -1.2 1.0 58.2 58.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 1.6 2.3 1.3 0.5 57.9 59.2 -0.7 1.4 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.0 62.9 62.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 -1.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.0 61.0 60.7 -3.5 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.3 57.4 56.5 0.1 1.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------