***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 33.7 23.8 45.6 87.5 42.7 42.6 18.5 30.2 37.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.9 31.5 43.4 96.1 52.9 48.0 20.7 30.4 37.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 25.4 27.8 45.2 86.4 44.8 41.6 21.6 38.3 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 48.3 43.3 52.5 90.6 46.1 44.0 34.1 44.9 52.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.6 37.8 50.3 87.1 42.1 41.3 33.0 42.7 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 40.2 32.1 55.5 90.3 43.8 43.5 30.1 37.3 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 17.9 31.5 43.0 97.0 53.3 48.6 18.0 29.0 34.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 44.6 55.4 56.3 90.3 45.2 43.4 53.0 57.2 82.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 40.9 31.5 51.2 86.4 41.6 40.8 28.8 36.5 46.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 36.1 37.4 55.6 85.8 39.2 39.5 33.2 50.1 57.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 51.5 37.0 49.8 86.9 41.5 41.3 28.3 48.4 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 45.4 37.8 51.1 90.9 47.7 44.1 30.2 40.8 48.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 33.5 40.1 53.5 87.2 41.5 40.2 34.0 44.0 50.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 36.3 42.3 60.1 88.5 45.4 42.9 36.0 46.5 61.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 36.9 32.5 48.0 92.2 49.5 46.3 22.3 32.6 37.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.1 35.9 52.2 90.7 45.5 43.8 28.9 37.5 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.7 44.6 102.8 57.8 53.2 20.6 24.5 32.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 30.1 34.5 60.4 87.9 39.8 40.8 32.6 40.8 51.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.2 32.8 44.2 93.1 51.3 46.0 22.9 32.7 44.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 42.8 37.7 68.5 91.7 44.3 44.4 31.3 39.6 49.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 37.3 30.2 47.4 85.1 41.6 40.5 27.8 32.7 39.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 32.6 31.5 46.9 100.3 58.6 51.9 22.8 29.9 39.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 24.5 34.0 46.6 89.5 47.9 43.9 25.2 34.7 39.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 35.3 37.3 54.9 87.2 42.1 41.3 32.7 45.4 54.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 34.2 28.9 51.7 87.6 40.3 41.8 27.6 29.6 45.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 40.6 38.2 55.6 94.1 49.2 46.5 25.4 38.3 44.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 33.0 25.1 48.5 89.0 42.7 43.2 22.5 28.8 38.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.9 31.7 50.5 91.7 47.5 45.3 22.7 33.0 39.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 70.8 53.7 64.4 90.5 42.3 43.0 49.4 65.8 78.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 19.2 29.1 43.2 91.8 48.6 45.1 12.8 30.1 37.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------