***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 8.9 13.6 96.5 60.7 52.7 1.6 3.1 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.8 13.9 111.9 63.9 55.6 2.1 4.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.3 13.4 97.0 60.9 53.4 2.5 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 11.5 15.8 16.4 103.7 62.2 55.0 4.3 9.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.9 10.4 15.0 95.9 61.4 52.6 2.5 5.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.1 16.7 95.3 53.9 48.4 2.2 4.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.5 14.3 116.4 68.3 55.4 0.7 4.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.1 15.6 15.8 94.4 55.6 49.7 6.2 15.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.5 14.6 90.3 57.7 50.3 4.1 6.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.0 16.0 90.9 54.9 48.8 3.9 8.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 8.6 8.0 14.5 96.0 58.2 51.6 2.0 7.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.7 14.7 97.7 56.1 51.1 1.1 9.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.8 16.7 98.0 53.4 49.9 2.6 6.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.9 17.0 94.1 56.8 49.5 5.7 9.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.8 15.8 110.6 65.3 56.6 0.5 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.3 15.6 98.3 55.9 51.4 2.5 6.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.2 15.3 125.5 70.5 57.1 2.1 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.7 16.8 90.8 56.2 48.3 2.9 6.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.9 13.7 106.0 61.9 54.8 3.6 4.6 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 20.0 98.8 58.7 50.5 3.5 8.4 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.0 13.6 92.2 57.6 51.9 1.8 5.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.8 10.6 15.4 117.3 67.5 55.7 2.5 4.4 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 13.8 99.3 61.4 53.0 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.2 15.7 95.1 57.5 50.6 3.2 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.0 15.6 98.7 59.7 53.5 3.4 6.1 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.9 16.6 101.2 56.3 51.2 1.5 7.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.8 14.6 99.1 59.9 53.0 1.9 4.0 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.7 8.3 16.1 106.1 61.9 55.4 2.8 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.3 18.0 95.2 57.4 49.3 7.0 11.8 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.7 13.5 105.2 63.2 54.8 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------