***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.0 14.0 97.3 53.6 47.5 2.6 4.1 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 6.9 13.1 103.3 62.7 50.1 1.2 3.5 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.4 13.1 91.2 53.1 45.5 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.2 11.9 80.0 48.9 42.3 5.8 9.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.7 11.6 76.7 47.7 41.5 3.4 6.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.4 13.6 80.3 46.1 42.9 4.3 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.4 5.6 13.0 105.5 60.4 50.4 1.6 2.9 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 12.9 13.3 81.8 48.7 43.7 5.4 13.0 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.9 12.5 77.8 47.3 41.4 1.8 5.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.5 5.4 13.6 78.4 46.3 41.7 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.1 11.0 75.3 45.6 41.2 2.8 4.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.5 11.3 76.8 45.6 42.1 4.3 6.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.2 12.2 74.3 41.6 40.7 4.2 8.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.3 16.3 87.4 54.0 45.6 3.7 5.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.2 10.9 78.8 51.9 43.5 3.2 5.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.1 11.3 74.4 43.4 41.2 2.7 6.6 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 7.0 12.7 104.8 61.2 50.1 1.6 4.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 5.9 15.4 83.3 48.3 43.7 1.1 6.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.1 13.2 99.4 60.5 48.9 1.3 4.3 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.6 18.0 91.9 53.2 47.9 3.9 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.1 12.0 80.4 50.3 42.1 1.8 5.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.8 13.5 104.8 59.6 49.9 2.8 4.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.4 13.5 93.6 57.4 47.3 2.7 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.2 14.5 84.2 50.2 44.1 2.7 4.2 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 9.3 14.0 89.1 50.9 45.3 4.7 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.7 13.1 84.2 51.0 44.8 2.8 5.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.5 14.6 98.0 54.9 48.2 2.1 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.3 11.2 77.5 47.9 42.5 3.0 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.3 9.2 16.7 87.3 51.1 45.9 4.2 8.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.8 13.3 100.7 60.0 48.9 1.8 3.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------