***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 3.1 12.1 87.2 50.9 46.6 1.0 2.8 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.4 10.9 92.2 55.2 49.6 1.8 3.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.6 8.3 12.8 90.6 54.9 49.6 2.0 4.1 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 15.9 107.0 60.1 52.2 3.4 5.0 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.6 16.9 114.7 66.2 55.1 2.6 5.1 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.4 18.3 122.8 69.2 59.0 1.6 3.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.8 4.6 10.6 91.3 55.1 48.8 1.7 4.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.7 18.2 18.4 122.3 68.1 57.3 7.3 11.6 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.4 8.0 17.1 112.7 64.4 55.0 1.5 3.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.7 17.8 115.1 65.8 55.6 1.9 5.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.6 17.3 114.5 65.3 54.4 1.4 2.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.7 17.3 121.3 67.6 56.2 1.7 5.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.2 16.9 112.8 62.2 52.9 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.0 17.1 19.4 112.5 65.6 58.3 4.7 12.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.4 14.0 103.5 59.4 49.9 1.0 3.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.8 9.8 18.2 122.8 68.0 57.0 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.1 11.8 105.4 61.8 53.3 2.9 7.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 13.0 19.5 118.2 67.7 58.3 3.7 5.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.3 6.4 11.5 92.8 56.9 50.5 1.6 5.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.7 20.5 114.9 64.7 55.5 4.0 8.9 15.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.4 15.0 102.1 59.2 51.1 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.1 12.5 12.5 105.6 65.1 54.5 2.7 5.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.2 5.7 13.3 97.4 58.5 52.8 2.0 4.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.6 17.6 107.9 63.1 56.4 4.0 9.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.4 15.5 99.1 56.5 49.6 1.3 3.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.1 8.9 18.6 126.6 70.8 57.8 1.6 3.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.0 13.4 91.4 53.3 47.4 2.1 2.8 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.6 15.4 111.2 62.9 52.8 0.7 2.4 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 15.9 20.8 118.4 66.7 58.5 4.7 9.8 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.7 10.6 85.8 51.7 47.4 2.5 3.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------