***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.0 6.0 60.7 43.6 37.3 1.1 2.4 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 0.7 1.9 5.5 66.6 49.3 40.3 0.7 2.0 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.6 5.9 58.6 43.8 37.4 1.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.9 8.4 67.0 44.0 41.0 4.4 6.1 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 3.7 6.8 55.3 37.6 35.5 3.1 7.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.5 7.0 57.4 40.3 35.6 1.5 4.9 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.0 5.1 62.6 46.3 39.2 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.2 8.8 61.6 40.6 36.8 9.1 15.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.4 4.8 6.9 58.8 39.9 37.5 3.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.7 8.3 57.0 36.5 34.7 4.5 7.6 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.4 7.1 56.1 37.2 35.7 2.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.0 7.8 64.1 43.0 39.1 4.0 5.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.8 4.2 7.6 59.5 41.1 36.4 3.6 4.6 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.2 7.5 53.3 37.2 33.3 2.5 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.8 7.2 69.9 55.9 45.7 0.1 1.7 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.2 7.1 60.8 42.0 38.1 3.5 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.6 1.4 4.9 61.5 49.4 41.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.6 8.6 56.9 37.2 34.0 3.0 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 0.6 1.6 5.7 65.0 48.1 39.3 1.0 1.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.2 10.0 59.1 38.9 34.5 3.6 7.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.4 6.8 60.1 42.4 38.0 2.1 6.8 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 0.7 1.5 5.4 61.0 48.9 40.9 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 0.9 2.0 5.9 58.9 44.8 36.8 0.5 2.3 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.2 7.1 55.1 37.9 34.6 3.0 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.4 6.6 55.5 39.0 34.4 2.1 4.0 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.9 7.2 58.6 43.6 36.7 1.4 4.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.2 2.6 5.9 58.1 41.2 35.6 1.5 3.1 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.7 7.8 67.5 48.2 42.7 1.0 3.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 8.1 8.9 57.2 36.5 34.0 6.6 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 0.7 1.9 5.8 66.9 47.8 39.4 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------