***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.8 14.2 1.3 75.7 70.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.1 14.1 1.3 74.8 70.9 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.3 14.4 1.2 71.8 68.7 14.2 15.0 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 7.9 7.9 11.5 1.1 68.6 67.4 6.2 7.0 7.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.6 12.6 1.1 69.5 66.9 14.3 15.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.1 10.5 1.2 69.9 65.7 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.7 14.1 1.4 76.6 72.3 13.3 14.6 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.1 4.2 10.7 1.0 67.1 63.9 2.1 2.6 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.1 16.2 13.2 1.1 68.8 66.6 13.9 14.8 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.2 16.0 11.7 1.0 67.2 64.4 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.2 12.6 1.1 69.6 66.1 13.9 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.5 16.0 11.7 1.1 68.9 65.5 12.7 14.1 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.6 11.7 1.2 69.8 66.4 13.6 15.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.3 13.2 1.1 71.0 66.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.8 13.0 1.3 73.1 70.3 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.6 17.1 12.1 1.2 70.7 66.9 14.2 15.4 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.1 13.8 1.3 73.7 70.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.7 11.2 1.0 68.2 63.8 13.5 14.4 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.0 14.2 1.2 74.1 70.0 13.7 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.9 10.8 8.4 0.8 67.1 61.6 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 15.8 16.2 14.0 1.1 69.2 67.3 14.3 15.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.9 13.8 1.2 72.9 69.3 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.4 14.2 1.2 73.2 69.0 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.1 16.3 13.1 1.1 69.5 66.1 13.8 15.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.9 12.9 1.3 73.9 70.1 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.2 10.9 1.3 72.2 68.9 13.4 14.4 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.2 13.7 1.4 76.6 71.7 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 16.1 15.7 12.1 1.2 69.0 67.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.0 10.3 1.0 69.0 63.8 8.5 9.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.0 14.2 1.3 75.6 71.2 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------