***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.0 15.8 0.7 57.9 57.5 16.3 17.7 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.8 15.4 0.5 56.3 56.4 16.9 17.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.2 15.9 0.6 55.4 56.2 16.7 18.1 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 13.7 0.7 55.7 56.9 9.2 11.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.0 14.3 0.6 54.7 56.5 17.0 18.8 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 15.7 17.6 12.3 0.6 53.2 55.7 15.3 17.3 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.7 15.4 0.6 57.5 56.9 16.6 17.6 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.1 12.5 0.4 52.9 54.0 4.2 6.1 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.3 14.7 0.6 54.1 56.4 16.3 18.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.6 13.4 0.5 53.5 55.2 16.7 18.4 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.6 14.1 0.6 53.5 56.1 16.6 18.3 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.7 13.5 0.5 52.8 54.8 15.6 17.5 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 18.6 18.3 12.8 0.5 51.0 55.3 16.6 18.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.2 14.4 0.4 54.2 54.2 16.7 18.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.7 14.4 0.8 56.9 57.8 16.7 17.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 19.1 18.8 13.6 0.6 53.0 56.1 17.1 18.6 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.0 15.2 0.5 57.3 55.6 16.0 16.8 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.9 13.0 0.3 51.4 54.0 16.2 17.8 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.9 15.6 0.5 56.0 55.8 16.4 17.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.4 9.9 0.1 51.4 51.6 11.0 12.2 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.4 15.4 0.6 54.6 56.4 16.8 18.3 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.9 15.1 0.4 56.5 54.6 16.2 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.0 15.7 0.5 56.2 55.3 16.6 17.8 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.1 14.4 0.4 52.7 54.8 16.6 18.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.5 14.3 0.7 57.6 57.4 16.6 18.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.7 12.6 0.6 53.3 55.9 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.3 15.1 0.7 58.6 57.8 17.1 18.1 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.8 13.9 0.7 55.3 57.0 16.9 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.5 11.9 0.3 52.0 53.0 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 15.5 0.6 57.0 56.9 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------