***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.6 14.9 1.4 68.7 61.9 13.7 15.4 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.3 14.6 1.3 65.2 61.4 15.3 15.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.2 15.0 1.3 65.9 60.8 15.0 16.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.9 12.8 1.4 65.6 62.3 6.0 8.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.2 13.4 1.4 65.3 61.1 14.7 16.2 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.6 11.4 1.4 60.8 60.6 12.6 14.3 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.8 14.6 1.4 67.5 62.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.5 11.7 1.3 61.4 60.4 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.9 13.8 1.4 64.7 60.7 14.5 15.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.6 12.6 1.4 61.3 60.6 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.9 13.2 1.4 64.2 61.0 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.0 12.7 1.3 63.2 60.8 13.3 15.1 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.6 12.0 1.3 60.5 61.1 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.5 17.2 13.6 1.2 62.2 59.5 15.0 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.8 13.6 1.5 67.3 63.6 13.8 15.8 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.0 12.7 1.4 62.8 61.4 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.3 16.0 14.4 1.2 63.9 60.4 14.0 15.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 12.2 1.3 61.2 60.3 14.2 15.7 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.8 14.7 1.2 64.8 60.8 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.4 9.3 1.2 61.6 59.9 9.2 10.0 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.7 17.1 14.5 1.3 65.6 60.6 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.9 14.3 1.1 62.5 59.2 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.4 14.8 1.2 65.8 60.1 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.9 13.6 1.3 62.3 59.8 14.8 16.1 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.8 13.4 1.4 67.6 62.3 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.7 17.0 11.9 1.6 67.0 63.3 13.8 15.1 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 17.5 17.4 14.2 1.5 68.9 62.5 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.5 13.0 1.4 64.5 62.2 13.5 15.5 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.6 11.2 1.3 61.8 60.2 9.1 10.0 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.9 14.7 1.3 66.4 61.9 15.3 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------