***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 11.7 13.8 12.2 1.4 66.1 65.5 9.6 11.1 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.9 13.8 12.3 1.5 65.2 65.6 9.9 11.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.6 14.1 12.4 1.4 64.8 64.6 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 4.3 5.8 8.5 0.9 63.8 61.2 1.3 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 12.7 13.8 10.5 1.2 62.6 62.6 9.7 12.3 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 11.5 13.1 8.6 1.5 63.7 64.5 8.3 11.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 13.1 13.7 12.4 1.6 66.9 67.3 9.6 11.1 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 0.7 2.6 8.5 1.1 59.4 60.6 -1.2 0.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 12.9 13.2 11.6 1.3 61.2 63.0 9.5 12.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 13.1 13.5 9.6 1.1 59.4 60.8 9.4 12.8 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 12.8 13.5 11.0 1.3 61.2 63.0 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 12.2 12.9 9.7 1.4 60.9 62.4 8.6 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 12.9 13.6 10.8 1.7 63.5 65.2 9.8 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 13.0 13.8 11.9 1.6 62.6 63.8 9.9 12.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 14.0 14.1 11.2 1.1 67.5 64.2 9.9 11.7 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 13.2 14.2 10.5 1.6 63.6 65.2 10.2 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 10.8 13.2 12.0 1.5 64.9 65.7 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 12.6 12.9 9.1 1.3 60.3 61.6 9.6 12.2 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.9 14.1 12.4 1.5 64.6 65.2 9.8 11.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 7.2 8.2 6.8 1.0 58.1 59.8 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 12.9 13.7 12.3 1.3 62.3 63.4 9.9 12.6 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 12.2 13.9 12.2 1.4 63.0 64.7 9.9 11.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 12.3 14.1 12.5 1.5 63.6 64.9 10.3 11.8 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 12.8 13.4 11.6 1.5 62.8 63.7 10.4 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 12.3 13.3 11.1 1.4 65.6 65.0 9.5 11.9 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 12.2 13.5 8.9 1.6 63.1 64.6 9.5 11.7 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 13.3 13.9 11.9 1.6 66.8 66.6 9.6 11.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.3 13.9 9.7 1.0 64.3 62.4 9.3 12.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 7.3 8.4 8.7 1.5 61.8 62.6 3.9 6.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.9 13.5 12.4 1.5 65.4 65.9 9.8 11.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------