***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 4.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 78.4 74.6 3.0 3.9 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 4.0 4.2 4.3 1.3 77.8 73.4 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.1 4.6 1.3 78.5 75.1 5.0 5.8 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 0.5 0.7 2.0 1.3 77.7 74.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 3.1 3.4 2.4 1.3 78.2 74.4 1.8 2.3 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 2.3 2.5 0.0 1.3 77.7 73.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 4.3 4.6 4.3 1.3 77.4 73.4 3.0 3.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -2.6 -2.5 -0.2 1.2 73.2 69.9 -4.4 -3.8 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 4.2 4.5 2.6 1.4 78.8 75.7 2.5 3.4 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 4.1 4.3 0.7 1.1 73.4 70.6 2.7 3.6 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 4.0 4.2 1.7 1.3 77.4 73.6 2.5 3.3 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 2.7 3.0 0.8 1.3 76.4 73.2 1.2 1.9 2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 3.5 3.6 0.5 1.2 74.4 71.3 2.0 2.8 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.7 2.3 1.1 74.7 71.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 4.5 4.8 3.3 1.5 84.2 79.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 4.6 4.7 1.1 1.3 76.7 73.4 3.2 3.9 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.4 4.7 4.1 1.2 75.4 71.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.1 0.1 1.1 72.7 70.0 0.6 1.5 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.5 4.3 1.2 78.5 73.9 2.7 3.6 4.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.5 -2.1 0.9 67.9 65.1 -1.8 -1.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 4.1 4.4 3.9 1.4 78.3 75.2 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.1 75.0 71.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 3.7 3.9 4.0 1.2 78.8 74.6 2.7 3.2 3.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 4.0 4.2 2.2 1.2 76.2 73.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.6 3.6 1.5 79.2 74.5 2.5 3.2 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 3.3 3.6 0.2 1.3 77.2 73.2 2.1 2.5 3.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 4.7 5.0 4.2 1.5 78.5 74.4 3.3 3.9 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.3 79.5 75.9 0.9 2.1 2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 1.4 1.5 -0.8 1.1 71.9 69.0 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 4.7 5.0 4.5 1.3 79.1 74.4 3.3 3.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------