***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.2 6.1 0.8 60.6 59.1 4.6 6.1 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.0 5.6 0.6 58.9 56.3 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.6 5.9 0.7 60.9 58.4 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.7 61.3 58.4 1.2 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.7 3.5 0.7 59.1 57.6 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.4 1.3 0.6 51.8 56.8 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.9 5.6 0.6 58.4 56.6 5.3 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -1.6 1.1 0.6 54.2 56.5 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.9 3.8 0.7 59.7 58.0 4.6 5.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.9 2.1 0.6 55.6 56.8 4.4 5.8 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.8 2.6 0.6 56.6 56.9 4.3 5.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 2.0 0.7 58.3 57.9 2.8 3.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.2 1.7 0.7 58.4 57.8 3.9 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.8 6.6 3.4 0.5 57.0 55.8 5.0 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 4.5 0.9 64.2 61.0 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.1 2.3 0.7 57.2 57.3 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.1 5.4 0.5 56.6 55.8 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.2 1.3 0.6 54.9 56.9 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.1 5.5 0.6 59.1 56.6 4.7 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.7 0.5 -0.8 0.6 52.9 56.9 -0.3 0.4 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.2 5.2 0.8 62.6 59.0 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.4 5.2 0.5 57.9 56.1 4.4 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.8 5.3 0.5 58.2 56.6 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.2 3.3 0.6 57.6 56.9 4.0 5.5 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.1 4.8 0.9 61.5 59.4 4.5 5.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.9 1.4 0.7 59.8 59.3 3.6 4.5 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.2 5.6 0.9 60.9 59.4 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.3 3.6 0.8 61.3 58.9 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.6 0.7 0.6 54.9 57.2 2.2 2.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.3 5.7 0.6 59.5 57.1 5.5 6.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------