***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.2 5.2 1.4 67.1 63.3 3.1 4.3 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.1 5.0 1.3 69.3 64.7 3.7 4.1 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.2 5.1 1.3 68.5 64.2 5.4 6.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.4 67.1 64.1 -0.8 0.1 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 4.3 4.7 2.6 1.3 64.7 62.2 2.0 3.3 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 2.9 3.9 0.4 1.2 61.9 62.1 1.4 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.4 5.0 1.4 68.3 64.6 3.5 4.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -1.5 -2.0 0.3 1.2 62.1 62.8 -3.9 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.3 2.9 1.3 64.7 61.9 2.7 4.4 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 5.8 5.7 1.2 1.2 62.7 61.9 2.8 4.7 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.4 1.7 1.1 62.6 61.5 2.5 4.2 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 3.9 3.8 1.1 1.2 62.7 62.8 1.0 3.1 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.4 0.7 1.2 61.6 61.2 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.3 2.8 1.3 66.1 63.5 3.3 4.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.6 3.7 1.4 68.3 66.4 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.4 1.3 1.2 61.8 61.2 3.4 5.1 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.4 5.2 4.8 1.2 67.0 63.5 4.0 4.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 3.1 2.3 0.5 1.2 63.2 61.9 0.6 2.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.1 4.9 1.3 70.2 64.8 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 1.0 0.4 -1.6 1.3 61.2 62.1 -1.6 -0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.4 4.3 1.3 65.4 63.0 2.9 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 4.7 4.8 4.5 1.1 66.1 63.1 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 4.6 5.0 4.7 1.3 69.8 64.9 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.5 2.5 1.2 65.5 62.8 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 5.5 5.4 3.9 1.4 65.2 63.4 3.1 5.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.7 0.6 1.4 64.5 64.4 2.3 4.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.0 4.7 1.4 65.8 63.4 3.2 5.4 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 3.8 3.8 2.8 1.4 66.6 64.7 1.6 2.9 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 2.4 2.5 -0.2 1.3 61.7 62.1 -0.2 1.0 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.8 5.1 1.4 68.7 64.7 3.5 5.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------