***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 4.7 5.0 4.4 1.8 74.0 71.0 1.5 3.0 4.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.7 4.2 1.8 76.4 72.5 1.2 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 6.2 7.0 4.5 1.8 75.6 72.3 3.7 4.6 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 73.1 71.1 -2.6 -1.4 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 3.7 4.3 2.4 1.8 73.8 70.6 0.2 2.5 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 2.7 3.2 -0.2 2.0 73.9 71.2 -0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.8 4.2 1.8 75.9 72.3 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -1.9 -1.4 -0.2 2.0 73.3 71.1 -6.4 -4.3 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 4.8 5.5 2.5 1.8 75.5 72.2 1.4 3.0 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.9 0.7 1.8 72.5 70.4 1.6 2.2 4.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 4.2 5.0 1.7 1.9 75.6 72.2 1.3 2.4 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.5 0.8 2.0 73.5 71.2 -0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 3.8 3.8 0.7 1.9 72.4 69.9 1.2 2.6 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 4.6 5.0 2.3 1.7 73.5 70.6 2.5 3.3 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 4.5 5.3 3.1 1.9 77.1 74.8 1.6 2.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 4.7 5.3 1.1 1.8 73.1 70.8 1.4 3.0 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 4.4 5.1 4.0 1.8 74.0 72.1 1.6 2.5 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 2.0 2.3 0.1 1.8 70.3 69.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 4.2 5.0 4.1 1.7 76.6 72.2 1.5 2.6 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 -0.1 -0.7 -1.9 1.7 66.3 65.9 -3.1 -1.1 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 4.0 4.5 3.8 1.7 73.3 71.6 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 3.9 4.6 4.0 1.6 74.4 71.8 1.2 1.8 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 3.6 4.1 3.8 1.6 74.6 71.6 1.0 2.5 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 3.9 4.6 2.3 1.8 73.9 71.9 1.8 2.2 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 4.1 4.5 3.4 1.8 73.1 70.6 1.0 3.3 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.7 0.1 1.9 71.8 69.1 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.1 4.0 1.8 73.3 70.5 1.4 3.2 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.8 72.7 71.7 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.8 -0.7 1.9 70.9 69.5 -1.4 -0.3 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 4.8 5.4 4.3 1.8 77.0 72.7 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------