***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 42.9 59.2 69.9 148.7 86.8 78.2 14.9 26.9 39.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 38.8 45.8 60.4 145.1 84.3 75.7 20.6 31.0 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 58.6 69.1 63.7 134.7 80.8 70.5 20.7 36.7 48.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 54.5 60.0 80.5 145.2 81.5 75.1 29.8 43.3 53.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 47.7 55.6 74.8 136.8 78.8 70.7 29.6 36.8 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 45.3 54.5 85.0 147.0 86.3 79.0 27.1 34.5 44.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 40.5 47.1 62.8 154.5 86.9 79.7 16.8 29.0 32.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 75.3 84.3 79.0 130.4 75.5 68.9 54.0 57.0 71.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 49.1 57.1 73.7 131.9 77.6 68.1 22.2 34.3 47.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 59.7 66.0 78.8 127.3 74.9 66.5 30.8 46.2 57.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 49.5 60.5 74.9 137.0 79.5 70.8 26.1 37.1 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 51.6 61.3 74.6 137.2 79.4 71.7 25.9 36.7 48.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 49.7 58.6 84.5 145.1 84.1 75.8 31.4 39.1 50.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 50.4 67.0 75.5 120.6 71.4 64.0 36.4 45.6 59.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 44.6 61.0 78.9 154.5 83.7 75.8 21.6 33.2 39.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 40.5 53.8 79.1 143.6 82.4 74.3 27.9 34.1 39.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 37.8 52.5 60.7 151.5 86.5 78.2 20.6 25.0 32.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 42.2 50.9 79.1 120.2 69.9 63.0 27.0 39.9 49.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 45.9 55.8 60.1 137.6 81.2 72.7 22.2 32.4 44.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 48.6 53.1 92.7 126.2 73.5 68.2 28.6 37.7 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 50.5 61.4 69.9 136.6 81.8 70.5 23.9 31.5 46.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 40.2 50.6 60.7 140.5 82.4 73.4 22.7 27.8 35.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 45.1 51.1 61.6 129.2 77.7 69.0 24.5 33.8 39.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 49.0 61.5 70.5 119.8 70.8 62.3 31.9 44.4 56.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 48.0 64.8 80.5 149.9 88.7 78.7 28.1 30.6 45.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 44.3 61.2 85.7 154.0 89.4 81.1 23.8 33.8 40.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 44.5 59.6 75.9 152.6 89.1 80.4 22.1 30.5 38.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 39.7 46.7 78.1 144.8 80.3 73.3 21.0 29.9 39.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 63.8 83.4 82.6 120.8 70.4 64.2 40.5 58.4 82.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 42.0 57.7 61.9 144.2 84.1 75.5 15.8 27.2 36.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------