***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.6 8.8 13.8 116.3 65.0 55.6 2.1 5.4 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 10.6 12.7 125.9 69.6 55.6 1.9 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.2 13.3 113.9 64.5 55.6 1.9 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.1 15.3 108.4 61.5 51.9 5.8 8.4 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.5 9.0 14.7 102.9 58.6 50.1 3.1 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.4 15.8 97.6 57.2 49.7 2.3 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 7.5 12.4 122.8 68.5 56.5 0.9 4.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.2 16.6 108.0 63.5 52.5 4.9 12.9 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.2 15.3 105.3 58.7 51.4 3.3 5.0 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.2 17.0 107.2 61.9 52.4 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 14.1 102.4 58.9 50.3 2.7 5.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.9 14.4 104.7 61.4 51.4 1.7 4.2 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.8 15.4 99.8 57.9 49.7 2.5 5.9 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.2 18.1 116.8 64.5 56.2 4.0 7.8 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.5 14.9 113.7 65.5 53.1 1.5 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.4 14.4 98.8 56.7 49.2 2.8 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 7.3 13.0 129.9 70.5 56.2 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.7 18.2 109.2 61.9 53.0 2.5 4.4 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 11.8 13.1 124.5 68.9 55.9 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.6 20.8 113.0 65.2 53.5 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.2 14.0 107.5 59.2 53.0 1.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.3 10.2 13.4 127.0 69.5 54.7 2.6 4.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.5 13.9 120.8 66.5 57.2 2.7 6.1 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.8 15.9 108.5 61.2 53.6 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.0 15.4 111.5 63.1 54.2 3.4 6.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 7.4 15.5 106.8 60.7 51.2 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.4 14.8 117.0 64.9 55.6 1.4 5.9 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.7 14.9 105.7 62.1 51.3 1.5 3.8 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.9 19.1 112.2 63.0 53.9 6.3 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.0 7.6 12.9 123.5 68.2 56.4 1.9 4.4 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------