***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 12.6 16.5 124.3 70.0 59.8 2.7 3.0 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.1 10.7 14.1 116.2 65.8 56.8 1.5 4.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.2 11.2 16.0 121.9 68.3 58.9 2.9 5.0 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.2 16.7 114.2 63.8 55.3 5.8 10.5 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.9 11.1 16.7 114.1 66.6 55.9 2.4 5.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.3 17.4 109.5 61.0 55.1 4.9 7.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.2 14.9 123.7 67.6 58.4 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.6 25.4 17.4 109.8 63.5 55.7 5.7 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.4 9.0 17.7 115.0 66.1 56.3 1.3 4.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.5 18.5 112.5 64.4 55.9 2.4 8.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.7 15.8 111.4 64.8 55.5 2.3 4.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.0 15.9 111.5 64.3 56.2 2.6 8.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.2 17.6 17.9 113.5 61.9 56.0 4.7 11.3 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 21.0 20.2 117.4 69.3 57.4 5.5 12.6 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.3 14.3 16.3 116.5 63.2 54.6 2.2 5.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.9 14.1 16.5 112.4 64.2 55.5 2.4 7.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.8 9.4 13.7 115.1 65.9 57.5 1.8 4.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.4 20.3 115.6 66.1 56.5 2.0 8.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.1 14.6 116.6 66.3 57.1 1.7 7.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.6 22.4 113.2 65.2 57.1 5.5 9.8 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.5 10.0 16.5 117.8 67.5 57.5 2.0 4.7 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.4 12.6 14.2 112.7 64.4 56.3 2.1 8.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.6 15.9 119.2 68.7 58.2 3.6 10.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 14.0 18.6 116.8 67.2 56.7 3.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.7 18.0 121.8 67.3 59.0 3.3 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.6 16.5 107.0 58.0 53.3 3.1 5.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 13.0 17.7 125.3 69.8 59.8 2.5 4.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.9 16.3 113.0 63.0 54.1 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 18.9 21.1 114.0 64.9 56.7 6.0 10.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.2 15.0 119.1 66.8 57.4 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------