***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 12.2 18.5 19.8 172.5 81.2 73.1 1.0 3.8 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.3 17.1 17.5 169.3 80.8 73.0 0.7 2.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.2 19.8 18.3 157.7 79.9 68.9 2.8 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 13.0 18.0 24.3 171.9 84.6 74.6 4.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 18.4 25.4 22.9 166.3 82.4 71.5 4.6 7.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.2 20.3 23.7 165.9 83.2 71.5 2.7 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.5 15.3 17.9 178.1 84.6 74.0 1.2 4.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 23.4 32.6 25.6 172.9 83.4 73.1 6.6 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.4 18.9 21.9 157.4 81.3 69.1 2.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.6 22.9 24.8 166.8 82.2 71.6 3.5 6.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 19.3 24.7 25.1 173.5 83.2 73.4 2.7 7.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 18.4 29.1 24.6 174.6 84.1 73.7 2.5 5.1 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 18.2 29.1 27.9 194.5 87.7 76.8 3.7 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 17.4 22.5 22.2 147.5 78.9 67.3 3.6 9.0 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 13.9 19.9 22.5 170.1 81.8 74.3 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 14.7 20.8 25.6 179.9 85.7 74.5 2.7 5.6 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 11.5 16.1 17.8 176.0 82.3 73.8 2.4 7.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.1 15.2 23.6 150.2 78.8 68.3 3.6 6.4 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.9 22.4 17.1 157.1 77.9 70.3 1.0 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 18.5 27.7 30.7 171.5 82.9 75.4 4.1 6.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.8 20.4 20.5 161.5 82.6 69.3 3.8 6.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 14.1 19.4 17.5 158.3 79.1 70.4 3.2 6.9 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.2 13.2 17.2 143.7 74.0 66.7 2.4 3.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.1 19.9 21.3 148.0 78.4 66.7 5.2 9.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 12.1 19.5 25.1 186.7 86.3 76.9 2.5 4.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 9.8 23.5 26.8 188.2 87.2 77.0 2.2 4.9 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 13.3 17.6 22.7 184.2 85.2 76.1 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 15.2 20.8 23.2 169.1 83.0 73.9 0.9 4.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 18.1 22.6 26.0 156.1 78.8 71.4 5.0 8.7 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.0 23.2 17.6 168.7 81.9 72.6 1.7 3.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------