***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 4.7 5.9 19.8 190.7 85.5 78.9 0.5 2.4 3.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 5.1 8.4 16.0 178.2 83.2 75.7 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.1 8.7 16.0 148.6 77.7 70.5 1.9 4.3 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 10.5 14.5 24.3 192.2 84.5 78.9 3.1 4.4 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 10.2 13.3 20.5 171.1 81.2 75.4 1.4 3.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 9.3 20.0 28.0 247.7 93.2 88.4 2.2 3.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.0 8.6 17.7 207.9 87.9 80.6 0.8 2.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 16.4 17.0 19.4 134.0 73.0 68.0 10.3 12.4 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 9.6 11.2 18.8 155.6 77.2 73.0 2.0 4.9 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 11.9 14.7 18.5 126.5 71.0 65.5 3.8 5.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 10.1 15.4 19.9 163.6 80.3 73.1 1.9 3.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.1 13.7 19.7 160.7 79.2 73.2 2.7 4.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 9.2 16.2 23.3 183.9 85.2 76.8 3.3 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.5 15.0 101.4 59.5 57.0 2.7 4.8 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 7.9 23.5 25.2 235.0 87.4 82.5 0.0 1.3 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 9.9 15.6 22.6 195.0 86.3 78.4 2.0 3.5 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 5.4 10.0 16.2 201.9 86.6 77.9 0.4 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.9 17.0 107.9 63.2 60.8 1.9 4.9 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.9 9.6 15.3 157.3 78.6 71.7 0.8 2.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 7.5 8.5 18.7 109.9 64.7 62.0 3.5 6.7 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 7.1 8.4 18.8 165.1 80.6 74.8 0.9 4.5 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 7.5 11.3 15.6 174.6 83.9 73.8 0.2 2.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 6.0 7.1 14.5 134.8 73.1 66.5 0.4 2.2 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 6.0 7.2 14.7 106.2 63.0 60.0 2.6 4.4 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 6.9 12.3 22.0 188.5 86.4 79.0 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 10.1 14.3 26.9 235.3 89.1 85.2 1.1 3.0 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 6.9 11.7 20.8 194.4 86.7 79.3 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 9.1 13.8 23.8 202.5 85.5 79.5 0.6 2.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 12.9 13.0 16.4 102.3 62.4 58.4 5.2 10.0 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 5.1 6.8 16.4 173.4 82.5 75.5 0.9 3.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------