***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.9 13.4 0.6 56.7 59.2 13.4 14.7 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.1 13.2 0.5 57.1 58.2 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.5 13.8 0.8 60.1 61.4 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.0 10.7 0.6 57.5 58.3 5.8 6.8 7.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.7 12.1 0.9 61.4 61.7 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 14.7 14.6 10.2 1.1 66.0 64.4 12.5 13.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.8 13.1 0.5 57.2 57.3 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.4 10.4 0.9 62.1 61.9 1.9 2.6 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.5 12.8 0.9 62.1 62.8 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.4 11.4 1.0 63.3 63.1 13.6 14.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.5 12.2 1.0 62.8 62.9 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.8 11.2 0.9 61.7 61.7 12.6 14.0 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.0 11.2 0.9 64.1 62.2 13.6 15.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.4 12.7 0.8 59.9 60.7 14.2 14.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.0 12.2 0.6 60.1 59.7 13.5 14.6 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.5 11.6 1.0 63.3 62.7 14.1 15.3 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.2 12.9 0.4 55.9 56.4 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.0 10.9 0.9 62.3 61.8 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.2 13.5 0.7 59.1 59.7 13.4 14.7 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.0 8.1 0.7 60.9 59.5 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.5 13.5 0.8 60.0 61.6 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.8 13.1 0.5 56.1 56.6 13.6 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.6 13.8 0.8 61.3 61.9 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.5 12.7 0.9 61.3 62.1 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.9 12.1 0.7 58.4 59.6 13.6 14.7 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 15.2 15.3 10.2 0.9 64.3 62.5 13.1 14.1 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.2 12.7 0.6 57.6 58.7 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.4 11.4 0.7 59.6 59.8 14.0 14.7 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.7 10.0 0.8 61.1 60.6 8.4 8.9 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.1 13.3 0.6 58.7 59.0 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------