***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.2 14.1 -0.3 49.3 48.4 16.0 17.3 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.3 13.8 -0.4 47.4 46.8 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.0 14.5 -0.3 50.8 48.8 16.7 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.8 12.0 -0.2 46.7 49.3 9.0 10.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.6 12.8 -0.2 49.3 49.3 17.1 18.6 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.7 10.9 0.1 51.5 52.2 15.3 16.6 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.8 13.8 -0.5 45.9 46.6 16.5 17.0 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.0 11.1 -0.2 45.9 48.8 3.9 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.2 17.9 13.2 -0.1 50.7 49.7 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.0 12.0 -0.1 48.7 49.4 16.9 18.1 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.4 17.7 12.5 -0.2 46.7 49.2 16.8 18.1 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 17.4 16.9 12.0 -0.2 45.2 48.7 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.6 11.4 -0.1 49.1 50.3 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.0 13.1 -0.3 49.9 48.7 16.7 18.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.4 12.7 -0.2 49.0 49.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.6 18.2 12.1 -0.1 48.0 50.0 17.1 18.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.1 13.6 -0.5 44.9 45.9 15.9 16.2 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.4 11.7 -0.1 48.1 49.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.3 14.1 -0.3 49.2 47.8 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.8 8.8 -0.1 46.9 49.3 10.8 11.8 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.1 14.0 -0.2 51.1 49.4 17.0 18.0 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.3 13.7 -0.5 46.1 46.5 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.6 14.4 -0.2 50.3 49.3 16.8 17.6 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.7 13.1 -0.2 49.6 49.2 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.5 12.7 -0.3 49.3 49.1 16.2 17.5 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.4 11.2 0.0 47.3 51.2 15.7 16.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.9 13.5 -0.3 49.3 48.8 16.7 17.9 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.1 12.3 -0.2 46.8 49.5 16.4 17.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.1 10.7 -0.2 46.1 48.9 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.2 14.0 -0.4 48.5 47.5 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------