***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.3 12.9 -0.3 46.0 46.9 13.1 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.6 12.6 -0.3 46.6 46.4 14.4 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.7 13.2 -0.2 48.1 47.9 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.7 7.6 11.1 0.0 51.6 50.0 5.5 7.5 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 14.2 16.2 11.7 -0.1 49.2 49.4 13.9 16.2 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.3 14.7 10.0 0.2 51.1 52.8 13.0 14.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.8 12.5 -0.4 45.7 45.6 14.4 14.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.4 10.1 0.1 50.6 50.3 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.8 12.0 -0.1 47.6 48.9 13.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.8 10.9 0.0 48.5 49.6 14.2 15.9 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.1 11.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 13.7 16.0 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 13.1 15.0 11.0 0.1 49.7 50.6 13.5 15.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.8 15.7 10.3 0.0 48.1 50.9 14.7 15.9 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.2 11.8 -0.2 50.3 48.7 14.3 16.2 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.8 11.9 0.1 52.3 51.0 13.2 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.4 11.1 0.0 50.5 50.8 14.3 16.3 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.1 14.8 12.4 -0.4 47.7 45.3 13.7 15.0 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.5 10.4 -0.1 49.5 49.0 13.3 15.6 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.8 12.9 -0.2 48.6 47.4 13.9 15.8 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.4 7.6 0.0 50.6 49.5 8.6 10.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.9 12.7 -0.2 48.1 48.5 14.0 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.7 15.6 12.5 -0.3 48.2 46.2 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 13.2 -0.1 51.7 48.7 14.4 16.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.1 16.3 11.9 -0.1 49.9 48.7 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.9 15.5 11.4 -0.3 48.5 47.8 14.0 15.6 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.6 16.0 10.2 0.2 52.9 51.8 14.1 15.8 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.5 12.2 -0.4 45.6 46.5 14.3 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.9 11.4 0.1 52.6 51.0 12.8 15.4 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 9.5 -0.1 50.4 49.2 8.2 10.5 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.5 12.7 -0.3 46.2 46.6 14.2 15.7 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------