***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.8 12.4 -0.2 43.4 46.8 11.8 13.0 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.2 11.8 12.1 -0.5 41.7 44.5 11.2 12.4 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 12.5 12.7 -0.2 42.5 46.7 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.1 9.8 0.1 47.8 49.3 2.7 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.5 11.1 0.0 45.8 48.6 11.4 13.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.0 9.2 0.3 51.7 51.9 9.7 11.8 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.0 11.5 12.0 -0.5 40.3 44.7 10.8 12.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.1 9.3 0.1 49.5 50.0 -0.7 1.2 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 12.2 11.9 0.0 45.0 48.5 11.4 12.9 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 12.4 10.4 0.1 47.5 49.5 11.1 12.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.5 12.9 11.3 0.1 47.9 49.2 11.1 13.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.4 11.7 10.1 0.1 49.1 49.3 10.6 11.9 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.4 10.4 0.1 48.9 48.7 11.0 12.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.7 11.5 -0.5 42.3 44.8 12.2 13.0 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.5 13.8 11.5 0.1 48.5 50.0 11.8 14.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.9 10.6 0.1 48.1 48.9 11.4 13.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.2 10.9 11.6 -0.7 39.1 43.0 10.5 11.6 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.0 9.7 -0.1 45.2 47.9 11.0 12.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.2 12.3 -0.4 42.1 45.1 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 6.9 7.0 -0.1 47.2 47.9 5.6 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.2 12.4 12.5 -0.1 44.3 47.4 11.8 13.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.1 11.7 -0.7 39.3 42.6 11.6 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.5 12.5 -0.3 42.3 46.0 11.8 12.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 12.6 11.6 -0.2 42.9 46.6 11.9 12.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.4 11.2 -0.1 43.5 47.2 11.3 13.1 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.2 11.7 9.1 0.1 49.0 49.7 10.6 11.7 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 11.3 12.5 11.8 -0.3 42.6 46.5 11.4 13.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.9 13.9 10.6 0.1 48.9 50.1 11.5 13.9 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 6.7 8.8 -0.1 45.9 47.8 5.7 7.1 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.0 12.3 -0.4 42.3 45.5 10.7 12.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------