***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 14.5 16.1 14.2 3.4 82.1 81.6 9.9 11.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 14.7 16.1 14.4 3.4 83.0 83.5 9.4 11.5 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 15.3 17.0 14.9 3.9 86.1 84.3 9.9 12.6 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.2 10.0 2.6 70.4 71.6 1.2 4.9 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 15.1 15.9 12.8 3.7 82.1 80.6 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.9 14.7 10.8 3.7 82.3 80.3 8.7 10.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 14.8 16.0 14.2 3.4 82.9 83.1 9.1 11.1 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 4.1 4.9 11.1 3.8 79.7 79.3 -0.8 0.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.5 16.2 14.2 4.1 86.0 84.1 9.8 12.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 15.5 16.2 12.6 4.2 84.5 82.9 9.9 12.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 15.2 16.2 13.5 4.1 85.1 82.7 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 14.8 15.4 11.8 3.6 79.4 78.9 9.2 11.6 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 15.4 15.9 12.8 3.7 81.4 79.4 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 16.0 17.2 14.5 4.2 85.0 84.2 10.3 12.9 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 14.4 15.4 12.6 2.6 75.2 73.8 10.3 12.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 15.7 16.6 12.6 3.8 83.3 81.1 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 14.5 15.2 13.9 3.3 82.9 83.6 9.4 10.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 15.4 16.4 11.8 4.0 82.7 81.4 9.7 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 15.0 16.5 14.6 3.6 84.2 84.4 9.9 11.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 10.9 10.7 9.0 3.2 74.8 75.1 5.3 6.8 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 15.0 16.4 14.8 3.8 83.8 82.8 10.3 12.6 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 15.2 16.3 14.2 3.4 82.8 83.0 9.6 11.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 15.1 17.2 15.0 4.0 86.7 85.9 10.3 11.8 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 15.9 17.2 14.3 4.2 86.0 84.2 10.3 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 14.2 14.8 13.0 3.3 80.2 79.2 9.6 12.3 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.0 15.5 10.5 3.2 77.1 76.7 9.9 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 14.1 15.0 13.6 3.3 80.8 81.0 9.8 11.5 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.2 11.4 2.8 74.4 73.8 10.2 12.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 10.9 11.4 11.0 3.7 78.9 78.1 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 14.4 15.8 14.4 3.5 83.0 83.4 9.3 11.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------