***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.5 4.3 0.1 49.2 51.8 3.1 4.5 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.1 3.9 0.1 47.6 50.8 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 4.2 0.2 50.1 52.7 5.5 6.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.2 0.7 1.6 0.3 49.5 52.5 -1.0 0.7 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.9 1.8 0.3 50.6 53.0 1.2 3.8 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.6 -0.5 0.3 50.6 53.8 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.4 3.9 0.0 49.1 50.3 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -2.8 -0.6 0.2 48.6 53.1 -3.9 -2.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.6 2.1 0.3 50.8 53.3 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.4 0.3 0.2 49.3 53.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.6 1.0 0.4 52.1 54.0 2.0 4.5 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.3 0.3 0.3 51.1 54.3 0.8 3.3 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.8 0.0 0.3 49.6 54.0 1.9 3.8 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.5 1.7 0.0 50.4 51.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 2.8 0.4 52.7 53.7 3.2 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.3 0.6 0.4 51.6 54.0 3.4 5.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.6 3.8 0.0 50.0 49.5 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.3 -0.4 0.2 51.2 53.3 0.1 2.2 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.0 3.9 0.1 48.8 51.7 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -1.9 -0.1 -2.6 0.1 48.0 52.9 -1.6 0.0 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.3 3.4 0.2 50.0 53.0 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.8 3.5 0.0 49.4 49.6 2.8 3.8 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.8 3.7 0.2 50.7 52.7 3.0 3.8 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 52.0 53.2 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.6 2.8 0.1 47.7 51.1 3.4 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.3 -0.2 0.3 50.2 54.1 2.1 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 3.7 0.2 48.8 51.7 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.1 1.9 0.4 52.9 53.9 1.6 3.0 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.2 -1.1 0.2 51.1 53.7 0.1 1.1 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.9 4.0 0.1 48.2 51.3 3.6 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------