***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 2.8 4.1 4.5 1.4 65.3 64.9 1.4 2.3 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 2.5 3.0 3.9 0.9 59.6 60.0 1.1 2.0 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.5 4.5 1.4 63.9 64.4 3.1 3.8 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 0.0 -0.1 1.7 1.5 66.1 65.5 -3.2 -2.5 -0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 3.0 3.3 2.6 1.7 68.9 66.9 0.2 1.2 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 2.4 2.7 0.3 2.1 75.9 71.8 -0.8 0.9 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.8 3.6 3.9 1.0 61.3 60.7 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -2.4 -2.3 0.1 1.9 70.5 68.7 -7.5 -5.3 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.6 2.7 1.8 72.8 69.4 1.3 2.4 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 3.7 4.3 1.0 1.9 71.1 68.5 1.2 1.9 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 3.7 3.9 2.0 1.9 73.1 70.0 0.9 1.9 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 2.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 72.1 69.7 -0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.5 1.4 2.3 77.8 73.1 0.8 1.5 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 4.4 4.9 2.3 1.5 66.1 65.8 1.9 2.7 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 4.4 4.9 3.2 1.8 75.3 71.9 1.5 2.7 4.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 4.3 5.1 1.7 2.1 76.6 71.5 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.1 3.6 0.7 57.8 57.9 1.0 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.8 0.4 1.8 68.8 67.2 -0.6 0.7 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 2.6 3.5 3.9 1.0 60.3 60.6 1.2 2.1 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -1.0 -1.3 1.7 66.4 65.9 -3.7 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 3.7 3.7 4.0 1.6 69.7 67.2 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.3 3.4 0.6 55.3 56.5 0.5 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 2.2 3.4 3.7 1.2 64.0 63.1 0.9 1.7 3.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 3.5 4.2 2.3 1.7 69.0 67.1 1.2 1.8 3.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.9 3.5 1.5 64.1 65.0 1.0 2.3 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.4 0.8 2.0 73.6 70.5 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.8 4.1 1.5 64.5 64.8 1.2 2.5 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 71.5 68.9 -0.5 1.6 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 1.4 0.6 -0.3 1.9 68.6 67.7 -2.5 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.3 4.0 4.1 1.1 61.8 61.6 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------