***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 3.2 6.8 6.3 4.7 99.3 98.0 -0.1 1.2 2.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 3.1 6.3 5.7 4.3 98.6 97.3 -0.3 0.2 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 6.0 9.0 6.4 4.6 99.3 97.8 1.6 2.6 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 -0.4 0.5 2.6 3.5 91.8 90.3 -4.7 -3.9 -1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 2.1 4.5 4.6 4.6 98.7 97.6 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.6 1.6 4.5 98.5 96.7 -1.3 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 3.6 6.8 5.9 4.5 99.0 97.5 0.0 0.6 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -2.4 -0.2 1.7 4.4 99.4 97.4 -7.2 -5.0 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 3.3 7.1 4.3 4.4 99.8 97.8 0.1 0.6 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 2.9 5.9 2.6 4.4 99.6 97.5 0.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 2.6 5.5 4.0 4.6 99.7 98.6 -0.4 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 1.3 5.2 3.1 4.9 99.7 98.6 -0.9 -0.5 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 1.9 5.6 3.3 5.0 99.6 98.9 -0.2 0.7 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 3.3 6.4 4.2 4.4 99.2 97.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.0 4.4 3.9 98.2 95.9 0.1 1.2 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 3.2 6.1 3.5 4.9 99.4 98.5 0.2 1.5 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 3.1 6.5 5.5 4.2 97.6 96.6 0.0 0.6 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 0.7 4.3 2.3 4.6 99.0 97.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 3.2 6.4 5.7 4.2 98.9 97.3 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -0.8 1.4 1.0 4.9 99.3 98.5 -4.6 -2.7 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 2.6 6.9 5.7 4.6 99.7 98.1 -0.4 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 2.5 5.7 5.3 3.8 97.2 95.3 -0.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 2.5 6.1 5.4 4.2 99.6 97.5 -0.3 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 2.2 5.9 4.3 4.6 99.4 97.8 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 2.3 5.2 5.7 4.9 99.7 98.3 -0.2 0.9 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 2.5 5.2 2.7 4.9 99.3 97.7 -0.1 0.5 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 3.0 7.7 6.3 5.1 99.7 98.5 -0.3 1.1 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 1.2 3.3 3.3 3.8 94.0 92.3 -1.2 -0.6 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.5 1.3 4.6 99.1 97.5 -3.5 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 3.1 6.9 6.0 4.4 98.9 97.5 -0.1 0.6 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------