***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.0 39.7 57.6 112.3 64.3 57.1 15.1 25.7 40.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 34.8 37.5 52.3 114.9 66.6 59.0 20.8 32.2 37.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 41.2 53.0 58.2 114.4 65.9 59.0 20.7 34.1 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 42.1 50.9 62.2 108.9 62.8 56.0 27.7 38.0 51.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 39.2 45.9 64.7 115.6 66.4 60.3 29.2 35.9 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 44.9 47.4 69.5 122.3 70.5 64.1 25.3 35.6 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 18.1 37.6 51.0 114.0 65.9 58.4 17.4 29.1 37.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 75.6 83.1 75.7 129.5 77.3 69.4 50.5 58.1 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 46.9 47.0 66.7 117.6 69.3 60.8 22.7 29.1 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 60.9 61.4 75.0 123.9 73.6 65.5 28.6 41.9 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 40.4 53.5 66.0 122.2 69.9 64.3 25.7 35.8 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 52.3 54.8 67.4 128.9 75.2 68.2 25.9 35.5 52.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 48.8 52.9 72.3 126.1 74.8 66.6 31.0 37.1 50.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 61.5 61.7 76.9 120.1 70.2 64.2 37.0 45.8 57.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 36.7 34.6 56.5 107.6 58.0 54.3 21.6 33.4 40.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 42.1 41.0 66.7 122.3 70.5 64.1 25.8 31.9 39.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.4 31.4 50.6 114.7 65.4 58.6 21.3 25.8 32.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 49.5 51.9 79.8 125.3 73.3 66.7 26.3 37.5 49.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 37.6 45.1 54.4 114.8 66.9 58.9 20.3 32.3 44.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 53.4 61.2 93.5 132.6 80.6 72.1 28.7 36.0 50.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 36.3 46.9 63.1 116.2 68.5 59.9 24.7 30.9 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 32.6 35.4 54.6 115.1 65.9 59.5 22.6 29.6 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 38.4 40.9 59.0 116.2 67.3 59.7 21.3 33.9 39.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 57.9 59.2 71.5 118.7 69.2 62.5 30.9 44.2 56.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 38.5 39.9 65.0 111.3 64.6 57.1 27.3 33.8 41.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 43.3 44.7 70.5 125.5 71.9 66.2 23.1 32.5 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 33.6 39.1 61.1 112.7 65.3 57.4 23.0 29.8 39.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.0 37.8 60.4 111.5 62.9 57.3 21.3 27.7 38.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 79.6 87.3 85.1 129.7 76.7 69.8 35.4 56.9 85.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 32.6 39.7 53.3 113.3 65.8 58.2 15.2 29.1 39.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------