***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.9 12.4 90.8 51.9 42.1 1.2 3.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.7 5.8 11.7 94.1 53.9 43.5 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.8 6.3 12.4 91.3 53.4 41.7 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.7 14.2 96.4 55.9 46.0 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.3 13.4 93.9 56.9 44.7 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.4 16.9 103.6 56.9 50.6 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 0.8 5.0 11.5 93.7 55.8 44.0 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.7 14.2 91.0 49.9 45.8 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.9 13.7 93.1 55.0 43.4 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.9 15.0 92.8 51.8 44.6 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.5 13.2 95.1 55.7 45.9 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.0 13.2 94.5 55.1 47.3 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.5 16.2 102.8 56.8 49.4 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.4 15.0 87.8 52.8 41.6 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 5.5 14.4 100.6 59.9 48.2 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.0 14.6 99.7 56.6 47.7 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.5 4.9 10.9 92.3 53.5 43.8 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.8 4.3 15.7 92.3 51.6 43.4 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 1.0 3.2 11.7 90.5 51.1 41.7 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 16.0 86.6 49.3 43.8 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 1.5 5.1 13.1 94.0 56.5 42.8 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.5 11.0 86.1 50.3 42.2 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 1.3 3.9 11.8 86.1 48.6 39.9 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.6 14.5 91.3 52.1 42.2 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.2 6.6 14.0 93.4 53.8 43.3 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.2 6.1 15.4 99.6 56.4 48.6 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.5 5.2 13.2 91.8 53.6 42.9 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.9 14.5 99.5 57.8 47.4 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.1 15.8 91.4 51.4 43.4 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 0.9 3.5 11.9 93.0 54.9 42.9 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------