***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.9 11.5 74.6 47.8 38.3 2.0 3.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 1.4 3.5 9.2 67.2 42.3 36.7 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.4 11.2 73.9 47.3 39.1 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.2 8.8 11.8 68.7 42.9 37.1 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.4 4.2 12.2 74.1 44.4 38.1 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.1 8.5 13.7 86.9 51.1 44.4 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.9 4.3 9.3 68.5 42.4 37.2 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 15.9 13.9 87.3 51.5 43.5 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.2 13.2 77.4 45.8 38.5 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.9 5.8 14.1 82.5 48.1 40.9 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.4 11.6 75.9 46.3 39.6 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.7 9.1 12.3 84.2 50.7 42.9 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.9 11.1 13.2 82.7 48.6 42.6 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.0 7.8 13.6 73.0 44.3 38.9 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.7 10.7 66.4 44.9 37.6 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.5 5.8 11.9 76.3 46.7 40.1 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.8 3.8 8.8 64.6 39.3 36.5 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.2 14.9 83.3 48.2 41.2 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.9 9.7 68.0 43.0 37.0 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 9.8 17.9 92.8 54.6 44.6 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.6 12.5 76.3 45.7 38.9 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.7 9.4 65.2 42.7 37.0 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.5 7.4 10.6 70.3 44.9 37.7 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.9 13.0 74.7 44.7 39.1 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.8 6.2 13.2 75.6 45.5 39.0 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.3 12.5 80.6 47.8 42.5 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.7 12.4 76.4 48.1 39.4 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.9 11.1 68.2 44.5 37.6 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 10.8 16.0 87.1 50.4 43.1 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.8 4.1 9.9 69.8 46.2 37.6 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------