***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 4.3 10.9 16.7 139.6 72.3 63.1 1.0 3.1 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 11.3 10.9 14.7 139.3 71.1 65.4 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.3 11.1 17.3 145.9 74.6 64.4 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.8 18.3 140.7 73.9 64.5 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 17.7 23.0 20.0 159.8 77.0 67.8 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 11.1 13.6 20.1 156.8 78.8 67.3 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.3 9.2 14.0 136.5 70.8 63.5 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 25.7 34.7 23.0 181.7 83.5 71.9 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.7 18.3 20.8 162.4 77.9 67.5 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 17.5 22.3 22.0 172.4 80.6 69.6 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 19.3 23.9 20.6 168.9 79.0 70.1 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 17.7 24.8 20.9 178.8 82.1 71.4 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 18.0 22.5 21.3 169.9 79.3 69.7 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.0 24.3 23.5 159.8 79.5 68.4 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 11.9 14.5 16.4 134.4 72.1 63.4 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.5 17.5 20.0 163.4 78.4 68.8 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.5 12.5 14.4 137.8 71.7 65.0 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.4 17.4 23.2 167.6 80.0 69.6 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 14.7 14.8 15.9 142.9 72.4 65.3 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 19.3 28.0 29.3 181.5 83.5 72.2 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.8 16.8 19.6 157.6 78.1 67.2 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 13.3 13.2 15.8 137.2 71.3 64.5 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 8.2 11.1 18.2 151.3 75.4 65.9 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.9 20.9 21.7 157.7 77.7 67.6 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 6.2 10.5 19.3 141.0 73.9 65.2 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 10.1 13.0 22.5 177.4 79.8 71.2 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.7 9.2 18.0 140.9 72.6 64.6 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.1 12.7 17.2 141.2 74.5 64.0 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 26.5 35.1 25.5 173.6 81.0 71.4 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.3 9.4 15.0 137.3 71.1 63.9 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------