***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 4.7 6.4 17.0 165.5 79.5 71.6 0.9 3.0 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.2 8.2 16.6 189.7 84.9 75.6 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 8.9 11.7 17.3 169.0 78.9 73.4 3.1 4.8 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 10.1 11.9 17.9 146.2 75.0 68.8 3.2 5.8 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.4 8.8 19.0 150.3 76.4 71.2 1.5 3.2 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.2 9.6 18.8 158.6 78.3 70.6 1.7 3.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.7 8.8 16.2 187.2 84.4 74.1 1.0 2.4 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 15.8 23.8 24.6 172.8 86.0 77.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.4 10.0 19.0 156.5 77.3 72.6 1.6 4.5 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 13.7 17.7 23.9 165.2 82.8 76.6 3.4 5.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 10.2 13.7 20.6 163.3 81.0 74.5 1.3 3.8 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.1 14.5 21.1 174.7 85.0 75.5 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.0 13.2 21.6 164.6 82.0 74.0 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 13.4 17.7 24.9 182.2 83.6 78.4 2.7 5.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.3 8.8 14.9 152.2 77.9 67.9 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 9.2 12.9 20.1 167.6 80.3 74.1 1.7 2.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.1 9.9 16.5 200.1 85.4 76.9 0.6 2.6 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 11.7 16.6 26.0 175.0 82.8 79.1 2.0 5.1 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 10.5 17.2 187.7 84.3 76.1 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 9.0 13.9 30.3 184.0 85.2 81.5 3.3 6.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.6 17.8 155.6 76.3 72.0 1.4 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 7.9 10.8 18.3 212.2 88.1 80.3 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 8.4 11.5 18.3 185.5 83.4 76.7 0.7 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 13.8 18.2 22.3 169.7 80.4 76.4 2.5 5.2 8.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.5 18.5 150.7 73.6 69.5 0.9 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.8 8.9 20.0 160.7 81.3 72.4 0.8 2.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.1 12.1 17.5 160.8 77.4 70.8 1.1 3.6 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.9 9.4 17.5 159.4 78.5 69.7 1.0 2.2 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 15.6 23.6 27.8 182.8 84.8 80.9 4.2 10.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.6 10.5 16.5 181.2 83.1 74.5 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------