***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.4 12.8 0.4 52.0 53.7 13.4 14.3 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.5 12.8 0.4 52.7 54.3 13.4 14.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.6 13.0 0.2 50.5 51.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.8 10.3 0.4 54.8 54.1 5.4 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.7 11.1 0.0 48.5 50.2 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.3 9.0 0.1 47.8 51.8 12.1 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.1 12.8 0.5 52.8 55.1 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.1 8.9 -0.5 39.1 44.5 1.6 2.5 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.2 11.7 0.0 46.5 49.4 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 13.3 13.6 9.9 -0.4 40.9 45.9 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.3 11.0 -0.1 46.6 49.1 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.4 10.0 -0.2 43.7 47.4 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.0 10.0 -0.1 45.2 49.7 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 13.6 14.2 11.4 -0.4 40.6 45.1 14.0 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.8 12.0 0.8 59.2 58.6 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.7 10.5 0.1 47.8 50.9 13.8 14.9 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.4 12.6 0.5 52.5 54.3 12.3 13.3 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.4 9.3 -0.5 38.3 44.3 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.5 12.9 0.3 51.4 52.9 13.3 14.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.4 8.3 6.5 -0.7 34.9 41.7 8.1 8.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.6 12.5 0.0 46.8 50.1 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.2 12.5 0.2 49.4 50.9 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.6 12.9 0.2 49.7 51.0 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.2 11.3 -0.3 42.0 46.3 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.4 11.4 0.3 51.2 52.7 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.8 9.3 0.1 50.2 51.7 13.0 13.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.6 12.2 0.3 50.8 53.0 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.8 15.0 11.0 0.5 56.3 55.7 13.4 14.3 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 8.3 8.3 -0.6 36.3 42.8 8.3 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.5 12.9 0.4 52.4 54.1 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------