***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 14.5 0.2 53.5 53.4 15.7 17.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.3 14.6 0.6 54.9 56.0 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.3 14.8 0.3 54.3 53.1 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.4 12.0 -0.1 48.2 49.8 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.1 12.6 -0.2 48.4 48.8 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.7 10.4 -0.4 45.2 47.3 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.1 14.6 0.6 54.4 56.1 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.8 10.9 -0.3 46.7 48.2 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.0 13.0 -0.2 48.5 48.9 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 16.1 17.3 11.8 -0.3 47.0 48.3 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.8 16.7 12.4 -0.3 47.0 48.5 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.2 11.9 -0.3 46.8 48.7 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.9 11.1 -0.3 45.6 48.4 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.3 13.1 0.0 50.6 51.0 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.9 12.9 0.1 49.6 50.9 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 16.4 17.1 11.9 -0.2 47.4 49.0 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.7 14.6 0.7 55.8 56.5 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.6 11.4 -0.3 45.9 48.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.7 14.8 0.5 56.2 55.5 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.6 8.6 -0.3 48.0 49.2 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.9 13.9 -0.1 50.1 50.1 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.8 14.5 0.6 55.6 55.6 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.5 14.8 0.4 55.7 54.3 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 15.8 17.0 13.0 -0.1 48.3 49.9 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.9 12.7 0.0 50.4 50.9 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.2 11.0 -0.1 47.7 50.4 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.4 13.7 0.2 52.7 52.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.3 12.3 0.0 48.1 50.2 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.6 10.5 -0.3 46.6 48.9 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.6 14.6 0.5 55.1 55.3 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------