***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.7 12.7 0.5 55.5 54.2 10.8 12.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.9 12.4 0.3 52.8 52.3 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.9 12.6 0.1 51.0 51.3 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.8 10.1 0.7 56.6 55.7 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 10.8 13.0 10.8 0.1 50.8 51.1 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.1 13.7 9.4 0.9 60.6 56.7 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.1 12.5 0.5 54.5 53.8 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -0.2 8.5 -0.5 45.1 46.9 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.5 12.5 11.5 -0.1 49.9 49.9 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.8 9.5 -0.5 45.5 47.1 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.3 12.7 10.9 0.0 49.9 50.3 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.1 12.3 9.8 -0.1 49.2 49.9 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 10.0 13.0 10.3 0.3 53.9 52.7 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.7 11.9 10.7 -1.0 41.1 43.0 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.7 12.4 1.3 63.7 60.9 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.7 13.7 10.6 0.3 53.1 52.9 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.4 10.9 12.1 0.3 51.4 51.8 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 9.5 11.5 8.8 -0.7 43.2 45.3 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.8 12.4 0.1 50.5 50.5 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.7 6.1 -0.8 41.3 44.3 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.0 13.0 12.3 0.0 50.4 50.7 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.5 11.9 -0.2 47.3 47.4 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.4 11.9 12.3 -0.1 47.4 48.4 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.0 10.9 -0.6 43.6 46.2 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.4 11.4 0.5 55.5 54.5 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.2 13.0 9.4 0.7 56.6 55.9 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.7 12.1 0.5 55.6 54.4 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.8 11.1 1.0 59.7 57.8 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.0 7.8 -0.9 40.8 44.1 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.9 12.5 0.4 53.5 52.7 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------