***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 11.4 11.3 10.6 -0.3 53.8 50.6 10.5 11.1 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 11.2 10.9 10.6 -0.4 51.6 47.6 10.3 10.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 12.6 12.6 10.7 -0.4 51.5 48.5 10.6 12.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 4.5 4.5 7.6 0.0 54.8 53.2 1.9 4.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 12.9 12.8 8.9 -0.3 53.6 50.3 10.2 12.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 10.9 10.9 6.7 -0.2 52.2 51.3 8.7 10.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 11.0 10.9 10.5 -0.4 52.3 47.9 9.4 10.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 1.8 0.5 6.0 -1.3 43.1 42.1 -0.9 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 12.7 12.8 10.0 -0.4 53.5 49.4 10.2 12.5 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 12.9 12.5 7.5 -1.0 47.4 45.1 9.9 12.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 13.0 13.0 9.2 -0.4 52.4 49.5 9.8 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 12.1 11.8 7.4 -0.8 47.1 45.4 9.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 12.8 12.6 8.4 -0.5 48.9 47.2 10.4 12.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 13.2 12.2 9.5 -1.1 42.3 42.3 10.8 12.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 12.7 12.7 10.6 0.4 58.3 56.3 9.4 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 13.1 13.0 8.5 -0.3 51.5 49.9 10.3 12.9 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 10.8 10.3 10.2 -0.4 48.7 46.4 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 12.8 11.8 6.6 -1.3 43.9 42.8 9.4 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 12.0 11.6 10.6 -0.5 49.6 46.9 10.3 11.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 7.4 6.4 3.8 -1.9 39.3 38.0 5.1 6.9 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 12.8 12.7 10.6 -0.5 52.7 48.6 10.7 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 12.2 10.9 10.1 -0.7 43.8 43.5 10.1 11.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 12.6 12.3 10.6 -0.6 48.4 46.1 10.6 12.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 13.0 12.6 9.3 -0.9 45.1 44.8 10.6 12.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 12.1 12.3 9.5 -0.3 53.1 50.9 9.7 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 12.3 11.8 6.6 -0.5 47.7 46.9 9.8 12.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 11.4 11.0 10.0 -0.4 52.1 49.2 10.1 10.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 13.2 13.3 8.9 0.2 56.0 54.5 9.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 7.8 6.3 5.6 -1.6 41.5 40.3 4.2 7.5 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 11.2 11.4 10.6 -0.4 52.1 48.3 10.0 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------