***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.0 4.3 0.5 59.2 56.4 2.5 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.5 4.1 0.7 60.7 57.8 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.1 4.4 0.6 58.6 57.4 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.1 0.8 1.6 0.6 57.2 56.4 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.2 1.7 0.4 52.9 54.2 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 2.8 3.0 -0.5 0.5 54.6 54.8 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.6 4.1 0.6 60.9 57.4 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -3.2 -0.7 0.2 47.7 51.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.5 2.0 0.3 51.9 54.2 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.5 0.2 0.2 49.4 52.1 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.3 51.4 53.3 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.6 0.3 0.3 48.5 52.5 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.5 -0.1 0.3 51.5 52.3 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.4 1.8 0.3 51.9 53.5 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.9 2.9 0.8 62.2 60.2 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.4 0.5 0.4 51.9 53.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.6 4.0 0.6 59.6 56.9 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.6 -0.6 0.1 49.2 51.7 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.5 4.1 0.6 59.4 57.7 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.6 -2.7 -0.1 46.7 48.8 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.7 3.4 0.4 54.9 55.1 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.8 3.7 0.6 58.7 56.5 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.8 3.9 0.6 57.3 56.9 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.9 1.6 0.4 53.3 54.7 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.7 2.9 0.5 58.9 55.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.1 -0.3 0.3 49.5 52.2 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 3.7 0.5 59.0 55.7 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.3 1.9 0.7 58.6 57.7 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.9 -1.2 0.1 48.2 51.1 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.4 4.2 0.7 61.0 58.0 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------