***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 4.2 3.9 4.2 1.3 69.9 64.0 0.7 2.0 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.5 3.7 1.0 62.6 60.9 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.8 4.1 1.2 67.1 62.8 2.5 3.5 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.0 0.1 1.5 1.4 68.4 65.1 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.4 68.0 64.5 0.0 1.0 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 1.8 2.0 -0.4 1.7 69.3 67.3 -0.7 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.4 3.4 3.8 1.1 65.9 62.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.9 -4.0 -0.9 0.9 56.0 58.9 -7.5 -5.9 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.4 2.1 1.3 66.8 63.9 0.7 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.6 0.1 1.0 59.6 60.4 0.9 1.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.2 1.4 1.4 65.3 64.2 0.4 1.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 2.2 1.8 0.4 1.3 63.3 62.9 -0.6 0.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 2.9 2.5 0.6 1.5 67.2 65.5 0.3 1.7 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.3 1.6 0.8 59.7 58.5 1.8 2.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 4.0 4.7 3.1 1.8 78.0 71.8 1.1 2.5 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 4.2 3.7 1.1 1.5 68.9 66.2 0.8 2.6 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.9 61.1 59.8 0.5 1.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.9 -0.5 0.9 59.3 59.5 -0.6 0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 2.4 3.0 3.6 1.0 62.9 60.9 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -3.8 -2.4 -2.4 0.6 54.0 56.2 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 3.7 3.2 3.5 1.3 69.5 64.1 1.3 2.0 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 2.2 2.5 3.3 0.8 60.0 58.2 0.2 1.8 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.9 3.4 1.0 62.8 61.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 2.2 3.0 1.7 1.0 62.1 60.9 1.0 1.6 3.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 3.5 4.2 3.3 1.5 70.4 64.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 2.5 2.6 0.1 1.6 67.6 65.8 0.4 1.6 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 3.9 4.6 3.8 1.4 70.1 64.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.6 71.7 67.6 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -0.4 -1.5 0.7 55.6 57.6 -3.4 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 2.8 3.0 3.9 1.1 64.2 62.0 0.7 2.3 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------