***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 47 53 100 1.5 2.0 2.7 1.0 64.9 63.4 -0.3 0.3 2.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 0.6 1.6 2.6 1.1 63.2 63.7 -0.6 0.3 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 3.0 3.8 2.8 0.9 62.3 62.2 1.3 2.6 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -3.1 -2.7 -0.2 0.6 57.3 58.1 -4.7 -3.4 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 58.8 57.7 -0.9 -0.2 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 -0.5 -0.6 -2.2 0.5 52.8 54.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 0.8 1.7 2.6 1.1 64.3 63.8 -0.4 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -5.5 -7.0 -2.9 -0.4 41.5 43.1 -7.2 -6.0 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 59.2 56.9 -0.3 0.6 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 1.2 1.0 -1.5 0.0 50.2 49.9 -0.2 1.0 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.4 55.7 55.6 -0.4 1.0 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.3 51.6 52.8 -1.5 -0.6 0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 0.9 1.0 -0.6 0.7 57.8 58.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.7 59.6 59.1 0.3 1.5 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 2.0 2.5 1.9 1.4 67.4 67.2 0.2 0.9 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 1.5 1.8 -0.2 0.8 60.2 60.5 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 0.7 2.2 2.5 1.1 64.6 63.8 -0.1 0.5 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 52.0 51.3 -1.4 -0.6 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 1.0 1.5 2.6 1.1 62.3 62.9 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -3.7 -4.3 -0.6 40.0 41.7 -4.3 -3.0 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 0.4 0.7 2.1 0.9 61.7 61.6 -0.6 0.2 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 0.5 1.2 2.7 1.2 65.6 64.9 -0.2 0.3 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 0.7 0.6 2.2 0.9 60.0 60.7 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 56.7 56.9 -0.1 0.6 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.0 61.8 62.7 -0.4 0.9 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 0.7 0.6 -1.8 0.2 50.4 52.7 -0.2 0.6 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 1.7 1.1 2.4 1.1 65.1 64.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 1.0 61.8 62.3 -1.4 -0.4 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -2.7 -3.5 -0.5 42.4 43.7 -3.2 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 0.6 1.9 2.8 1.1 63.2 62.9 -0.2 0.3 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------