***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 61.1 131.2 79.6 71.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 38.7 39.7 56.3 123.3 71.8 65.6 20.8 32.2 37.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 55.8 64.2 61.8 128.2 76.9 70.0 20.7 34.1 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 50.6 58.3 74.0 136.9 80.4 73.4 27.7 38.0 51.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 45.1 55.9 73.0 135.1 81.5 72.7 29.2 35.9 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 46.4 50.0 83.7 133.3 78.1 72.4 25.3 35.6 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 31.1 40.9 55.6 123.3 71.8 65.4 17.4 29.1 37.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 73.5 81.6 74.3 128.5 75.8 68.1 50.5 58.1 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 46.4 57.1 70.2 128.8 76.2 69.6 22.7 29.1 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 59.4 68.6 75.3 128.2 76.5 68.7 28.6 41.9 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 50.2 58.9 70.2 136.4 81.4 72.0 25.7 35.8 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 51.1 58.7 67.5 132.6 77.5 69.8 25.9 35.5 52.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 48.3 53.8 77.5 136.4 79.2 73.6 31.0 37.1 50.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 62.0 68.4 72.7 121.0 72.2 65.2 37.0 45.8 57.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 43.6 50.3 71.3 139.8 79.6 73.8 21.6 33.4 40.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 43.0 53.4 73.8 137.6 81.4 73.3 25.8 31.9 39.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 28.2 40.0 54.1 122.1 69.6 63.6 21.3 25.8 32.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 47.9 52.6 80.5 124.7 75.6 66.4 26.3 37.5 49.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 47.2 47.1 57.8 123.4 71.6 66.3 20.3 32.3 44.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 50.8 53.0 90.6 124.8 74.7 66.5 28.7 36.0 50.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 47.1 52.1 64.6 128.7 75.7 69.6 24.7 30.9 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 32.5 39.4 57.3 124.4 72.1 65.6 22.6 29.6 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 46.7 48.0 61.7 123.3 71.3 66.8 21.3 33.9 39.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 57.2 64.0 72.7 124.7 75.3 66.9 30.9 44.2 56.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 47.8 57.9 72.2 132.4 80.2 72.8 27.3 33.8 41.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 43.1 46.6 72.8 132.5 75.7 71.2 23.1 32.5 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 40.2 46.9 67.6 131.4 78.5 72.0 23.0 29.8 39.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 37.4 45.4 73.6 140.4 81.1 73.9 21.3 27.7 38.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 76.2 86.5 83.6 124.2 74.4 65.9 35.4 56.9 85.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 38.7 43.9 57.6 125.3 74.7 67.8 15.2 29.1 39.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------