***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 93.6 52.0 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.4 10.8 98.2 58.7 48.8 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.0 11.3 97.4 51.2 47.7 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.2 13.5 103.7 61.9 48.7 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.3 13.3 104.5 58.8 49.9 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.7 18.0 113.8 59.8 52.6 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.2 5.3 10.6 96.9 57.0 49.6 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.3 14.5 111.5 61.8 53.2 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.8 4.9 12.9 102.5 55.1 49.7 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.8 14.7 108.3 58.4 52.1 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.8 12.9 109.2 61.3 51.7 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.8 12.5 110.5 64.1 52.2 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.7 15.1 110.4 60.4 51.7 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.8 10.4 16.0 111.7 61.3 50.1 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.1 12.7 103.2 63.0 48.1 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.4 14.1 111.7 63.3 52.0 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.5 10.9 105.1 60.3 51.9 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.7 17.3 115.3 64.8 53.9 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.9 11.2 99.3 57.5 48.6 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.7 18.7 112.9 67.4 54.9 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.1 4.7 11.5 98.2 52.7 48.0 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.9 7.9 11.2 105.8 63.1 50.8 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.6 12.3 102.8 58.0 48.9 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.4 15.4 111.8 62.2 51.3 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.6 12.5 94.4 53.6 46.6 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.6 13.3 101.9 58.4 49.7 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.8 11.7 93.3 52.7 47.1 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.1 13.8 108.8 64.4 49.9 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.1 18.3 117.5 66.5 54.6 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.5 10.7 95.6 54.7 47.9 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------