***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 101.7 62.3 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 6.4 7.2 11.6 100.4 56.3 53.5 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.9 5.3 12.7 101.3 60.3 53.0 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 15.0 96.3 62.0 52.8 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.4 15.9 98.8 63.0 52.9 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.1 19.1 101.3 64.1 51.3 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 7.2 7.0 11.7 102.1 56.3 54.2 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 25.3 16.8 96.0 63.9 50.7 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.4 15.8 98.5 60.7 52.3 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.0 17.3 99.0 63.3 52.0 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.7 15.7 99.7 66.4 52.9 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.2 14.9 14.8 96.0 65.4 50.7 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.7 18.6 17.0 101.1 67.8 52.0 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.2 16.7 16.1 97.9 60.0 52.9 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.5 12.8 89.4 61.9 50.8 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.2 16.1 98.8 65.0 52.3 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 6.6 6.6 11.8 101.7 57.6 55.2 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 18.4 98.7 60.1 51.4 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 8.3 9.3 11.8 99.2 57.1 53.1 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 9.9 20.2 95.3 56.7 49.9 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.6 13.8 99.5 57.4 52.4 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.5 9.4 12.6 107.1 59.7 56.4 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 11.7 11.0 12.7 98.0 58.6 52.9 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.1 16.1 98.7 60.0 52.1 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.2 14.6 101.6 61.5 53.8 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 10.2 15.2 94.4 63.1 50.0 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.3 9.9 13.6 103.3 62.2 54.5 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 11.9 14.5 93.2 62.9 52.1 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.7 19.1 98.9 58.6 51.0 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 6.5 5.7 11.7 101.4 56.5 53.4 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------