***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 88.5 52.5 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.5 12.8 94.5 56.7 50.4 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 5.4 11.8 86.3 51.2 47.7 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.9 12.2 88.6 54.7 49.3 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.4 12.6 94.8 57.6 50.3 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.8 13.5 88.5 54.5 49.1 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.5 13.0 97.7 58.8 50.5 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.3 13.7 96.1 56.3 51.2 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.9 6.8 12.5 92.3 55.8 49.6 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 13.5 93.2 55.8 49.6 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.9 12.0 96.3 56.3 49.9 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.1 12.1 97.8 58.5 52.5 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.9 13.6 98.6 58.3 53.3 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.3 10.4 13.5 84.4 51.5 47.7 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.3 12.0 86.1 56.5 50.2 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.0 12.5 96.5 57.9 51.4 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.6 13.0 100.0 62.5 51.5 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 15.3 92.7 55.8 50.3 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 5.9 12.5 90.4 54.7 49.6 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 6.4 18.8 99.5 56.9 53.6 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.3 6.2 11.1 84.0 49.4 46.4 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.1 13.6 98.8 61.2 51.7 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.8 12.4 86.8 54.1 48.9 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.4 13.3 86.6 52.0 48.1 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 6.2 5.2 13.6 90.6 49.6 49.1 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.0 13.5 101.9 59.6 55.3 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.0 5.9 13.6 93.2 51.8 49.7 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.4 11.8 88.7 56.2 50.3 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.5 16.6 95.8 56.4 51.8 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 3.5 12.7 93.2 53.8 49.8 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------