***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 26.6 265.3 96.7 92.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 6.2 14.2 21.0 221.4 94.0 87.5 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 10.8 39.8 26.0 249.9 96.1 91.4 3.1 4.8 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 11.8 28.1 33.2 286.7 97.9 93.7 3.2 5.8 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 9.2 30.5 31.2 262.2 98.3 91.9 1.5 3.2 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.3 29.9 33.2 256.5 98.3 94.0 1.7 3.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 7.0 10.2 20.4 215.3 93.0 86.8 1.0 2.4 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 16.4 27.3 29.4 223.0 95.3 88.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 9.7 30.9 28.9 235.9 96.2 90.3 1.6 4.5 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 15.4 45.7 29.8 225.4 96.8 89.7 3.4 5.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 11.8 71.2 29.6 258.1 98.4 90.9 1.3 3.8 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 9.9 35.6 28.1 238.1 95.9 88.7 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 7.8 30.7 31.9 252.9 99.1 92.4 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 14.2 40.4 27.2 202.5 93.6 87.3 2.7 5.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 8.7 40.0 33.8 323.7 97.1 94.4 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 11.2 27.4 31.1 263.5 99.1 92.2 1.7 2.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 5.6 10.5 18.5 196.6 88.3 82.0 0.6 2.6 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 12.7 29.7 29.5 204.7 95.4 89.0 2.0 5.1 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 8.5 14.2 22.4 226.2 94.0 88.4 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 9.2 19.2 32.9 206.1 95.5 89.1 3.3 6.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 7.5 25.7 28.1 247.7 94.9 90.7 1.4 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 8.3 10.7 19.9 201.0 86.9 82.8 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 9.9 17.3 24.3 224.0 93.3 88.9 0.7 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 15.6 45.2 27.9 215.8 95.3 89.3 2.5 5.2 8.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 9.1 26.3 31.4 265.1 98.5 92.7 0.9 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 7.5 17.1 30.8 245.3 96.4 91.7 0.8 2.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.5 26.3 28.6 257.7 97.9 92.2 1.1 3.6 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 8.9 29.3 33.5 309.0 97.9 94.4 1.0 2.2 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 15.9 49.5 29.5 196.1 95.6 87.9 4.2 10.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 6.9 12.9 22.5 234.3 96.0 89.9 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------