***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 -0.9 25.2 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.0 11.2 -1.1 23.0 35.7 13.4 14.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.5 11.7 -0.9 28.2 39.5 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.5 10.1 -0.7 35.2 43.6 5.4 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.9 10.5 -0.7 36.6 44.4 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.6 9.3 0.0 52.1 53.5 12.1 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 13.0 12.7 11.1 -1.1 25.4 35.7 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.3 9.4 -0.4 43.6 48.3 1.6 2.5 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.7 11.1 -0.7 36.4 44.1 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.6 10.0 -0.6 39.5 46.3 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.7 10.4 -0.5 40.3 46.6 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.5 10.2 -0.4 44.1 48.6 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.4 14.6 9.9 -0.3 47.5 50.5 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 13.6 13.9 10.7 -1.0 29.7 40.7 14.0 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 12.4 13.5 10.6 -0.6 36.7 42.7 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.5 10.2 -0.4 43.4 48.7 13.8 14.9 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 12.4 12.2 10.8 -1.2 22.7 34.4 12.3 13.3 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.4 9.4 -0.6 37.7 46.5 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 13.3 12.8 11.4 -1.1 24.0 36.6 13.3 14.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.6 7.3 -0.3 43.5 49.1 8.1 8.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 13.4 13.7 11.5 -0.8 32.7 41.6 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 13.3 12.9 11.0 -1.3 22.4 34.7 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 13.8 13.3 11.5 -1.1 25.9 38.2 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.7 10.7 -0.8 33.4 42.8 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.3 10.3 -0.8 28.2 40.5 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.7 9.6 -0.1 49.1 51.5 13.0 13.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.1 10.9 -0.9 26.7 39.4 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 12.4 13.9 10.5 -0.5 39.1 45.2 13.4 14.3 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 8.4 8.5 -0.5 39.9 47.3 8.3 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 13.0 12.8 11.4 -1.1 24.5 36.8 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------