***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 0.2 52.0 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.5 14.6 0.3 57.0 51.8 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.3 14.9 0.2 53.1 52.0 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.2 13.2 0.0 47.4 50.3 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.1 13.5 0.1 47.5 51.3 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.9 11.7 0.2 50.6 52.0 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.5 17.1 14.5 0.3 55.9 51.6 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 12.3 0.4 53.4 53.3 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.0 14.0 0.2 48.7 51.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.3 13.0 0.3 52.0 52.6 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.9 13.3 0.2 50.0 52.2 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.6 13.1 0.3 51.9 53.0 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 12.5 0.3 52.7 52.9 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.4 14.0 0.4 53.7 52.9 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.8 13.3 -0.1 48.5 49.6 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.2 12.9 0.2 50.3 52.1 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 15.3 16.8 14.4 0.3 56.2 51.5 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.2 12.5 0.4 54.0 53.2 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.7 17.7 14.8 0.3 56.1 52.0 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.7 10.3 0.6 57.8 54.5 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.9 14.6 0.2 49.5 51.6 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.7 14.6 0.3 54.7 51.9 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.4 14.9 0.3 54.1 52.3 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.8 17.1 13.9 0.4 53.8 52.8 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.8 16.9 13.4 0.1 49.9 50.9 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.4 12.2 0.3 52.9 53.2 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.4 14.0 0.2 52.1 51.2 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.2 13.3 0.0 47.6 50.1 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.0 11.5 0.5 55.6 53.9 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.8 17.7 14.8 0.3 56.0 51.8 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------