***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 49.5 53.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.8 11.6 0.0 51.9 53.2 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.6 13.0 12.2 0.2 53.0 54.6 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.5 10.2 0.0 50.9 53.3 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 16.4 13.1 10.7 0.2 52.2 54.6 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 15.4 13.6 9.3 0.7 60.3 58.1 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.6 11.4 0.0 50.0 52.5 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 4.5 1.7 9.5 0.2 55.9 54.4 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.2 12.9 11.3 0.2 53.7 55.1 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 16.5 13.5 10.3 0.3 56.4 55.3 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 16.6 13.1 10.5 0.2 53.5 54.7 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 16.0 12.7 10.2 0.1 54.5 54.1 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 16.5 13.4 9.7 0.3 55.8 55.3 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.3 12.7 11.4 0.4 54.7 56.2 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.3 14.3 10.3 -0.1 52.7 52.0 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 17.4 13.8 10.2 0.2 55.7 55.1 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.9 11.3 -0.1 51.3 52.5 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.8 12.9 9.8 0.4 56.8 55.9 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.9 11.9 0.1 52.8 54.2 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.1 7.3 0.2 55.5 54.5 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.9 13.2 11.8 0.2 53.7 54.6 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.7 11.6 0.0 52.6 53.3 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.4 12.7 12.1 0.3 53.8 55.4 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.1 12.9 11.3 0.4 55.2 56.1 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.7 10.4 0.0 51.3 52.7 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.5 12.2 9.3 0.2 54.4 54.8 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.5 11.0 0.0 50.6 52.8 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.3 14.4 10.5 0.1 54.0 53.7 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 7.8 8.8 0.4 56.1 55.7 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.8 11.8 0.0 51.8 53.4 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------