***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 -4.6 9.3 13.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 8.0 5.9 5.2 -5.4 3.7 10.0 10.3 10.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 8.2 6.5 6.0 -4.9 8.4 12.4 10.6 12.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 4.7 -3.4 20.3 22.6 1.9 4.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 8.3 7.6 5.5 -3.7 17.5 19.8 10.2 12.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.9 5.2 -1.8 35.5 35.2 8.7 10.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 7.6 5.2 5.2 -5.3 4.1 10.2 9.4 10.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -1.2 -2.0 4.6 -3.2 19.2 22.9 -0.9 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 8.2 7.6 6.2 -4.1 15.6 17.1 10.2 12.5 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 8.0 7.2 5.0 -3.8 16.9 19.2 9.9 12.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 7.8 7.4 5.7 -3.4 18.2 21.5 9.8 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 8.3 7.9 5.5 -2.9 19.6 24.2 9.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 9.9 9.2 5.9 -2.5 22.4 27.3 10.4 12.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 8.1 6.6 4.7 -5.5 8.8 10.9 10.8 12.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 6.9 7.1 6.4 -3.1 21.7 23.7 9.4 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 9.3 9.3 5.9 -2.9 20.1 24.7 10.3 12.9 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 7.3 4.8 4.7 -5.7 3.1 8.3 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 8.3 6.8 4.1 -4.1 13.9 17.2 9.4 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 7.6 4.7 5.4 -5.4 4.2 10.1 10.3 11.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.6 -3.3 17.7 21.6 5.1 6.9 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 8.2 7.4 6.3 -4.4 13.1 15.2 10.7 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 7.8 3.9 4.8 -5.8 3.0 8.1 10.1 11.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 8.3 6.9 5.5 -5.4 6.5 10.3 10.6 12.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 8.7 7.5 5.1 -4.9 10.3 13.4 10.6 12.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 7.3 6.8 5.2 -4.2 16.1 16.6 9.7 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 10.1 9.8 5.7 -1.9 31.5 32.7 9.8 12.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 7.2 6.7 5.5 -4.5 11.4 14.3 10.1 10.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 7.5 7.2 5.7 -3.0 21.5 25.0 9.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 3.2 2.6 3.4 -4.0 14.4 17.9 4.2 7.5 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 7.7 5.8 5.6 -5.2 5.2 11.1 10.0 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------