***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.0 -0.1 42.7 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.8 2.6 -0.3 40.7 46.9 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.3 2.7 -0.2 46.5 49.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -0.8 0.9 -0.1 48.2 51.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.3 1.1 0.0 48.0 51.7 1.8 2.3 2.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 2.1 1.8 -0.4 0.3 58.9 57.8 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.0 2.6 -0.2 42.5 48.0 2.6 3.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -4.1 -0.2 0.2 52.9 56.5 -4.6 -4.2 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.3 1.7 0.0 49.0 53.1 2.3 3.4 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.4 0.4 0.1 50.2 54.3 2.6 3.4 3.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 45.5 52.2 2.3 3.2 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 52.2 55.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.8 0.2 0.2 56.1 55.3 1.7 2.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.3 1.4 -0.3 40.0 47.5 2.9 3.9 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.3 1.7 0.1 51.9 53.5 2.6 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 0.5 0.1 50.7 54.2 2.8 3.6 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.9 2.4 -0.4 38.7 45.1 2.5 3.3 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.3 -0.3 0.1 50.4 54.7 0.5 1.2 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.6 -0.3 41.8 47.0 2.4 3.4 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.7 0.6 60.1 61.5 -2.0 -1.5 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.1 2.4 -0.1 46.3 51.3 2.3 3.2 3.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.9 2.2 2.4 -0.4 40.1 44.7 2.0 2.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.7 2.5 -0.2 42.5 47.8 2.3 2.9 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.8 1.2 -0.2 44.0 49.9 2.2 3.1 3.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.8 1.7 -0.2 45.1 49.7 2.4 3.0 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.6 0.3 0.2 57.6 56.6 1.7 2.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.3 2.4 -0.1 43.6 50.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.1 52.2 53.6 0.9 1.7 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.2 52.2 56.0 -0.1 0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.8 -0.2 44.1 48.4 2.7 3.6 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------