***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 0.5 54.7 55.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 5.2 0.6 57.1 56.6 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 5.1 0.6 56.6 57.1 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.0 3.3 0.6 57.5 57.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.0 3.4 0.7 58.2 57.8 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.8 58.2 59.3 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.1 5.1 0.5 57.8 55.8 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.5 1.9 0.7 60.1 58.5 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.8 4.0 0.7 54.2 57.4 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.8 2.6 0.7 57.1 58.0 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.7 3.0 0.8 59.1 59.1 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 3.7 4.3 2.6 0.7 58.6 58.3 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.9 2.1 0.7 56.1 58.0 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.2 3.9 0.6 55.8 57.4 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.0 3.8 0.5 55.7 55.6 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.0 2.6 0.7 57.5 58.8 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 5.0 0.5 55.0 55.3 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.2 1.9 0.7 56.6 58.0 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.6 5.2 0.6 56.6 57.1 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.9 58.7 59.5 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.4 4.8 0.6 54.1 56.7 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 5.1 0.5 54.7 55.9 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.3 5.0 0.6 56.7 57.5 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.9 3.6 0.6 57.2 57.7 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.4 3.9 0.5 54.6 55.8 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.8 2.1 0.6 55.8 57.5 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.7 4.7 0.5 53.9 55.1 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.3 3.5 0.7 57.0 57.0 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.8 58.8 58.7 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.2 5.2 0.6 57.2 56.7 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------